The Mayor’s excuse for Bad Planning
Todd Gloria justifies the mindless upzoning by continually referring to a “housing shortage” and the need for “more housing production”. Yet the evidence is that the City of San Diego is overbuilt on housing.
- Vacancies have increased throughout the city, leading to rent concessions of 4 to 8 weeks free rent.
- A recent city report shows an average housing vacancy of 14% in the four Mid-City communities. (A normal vacancy rate is 4-5%.)
- Many downtown residential projects have 30% vacancy (U-T article).
- Major housing projects have been put on-hold because they are not needed. Riverwalk in Mission Valley; UCSD Medical Center in Hillcrest (1000 units).
A case can be made about a lack of affordable housing, but the mayor keeps talking about an overall “housing shortage” which doesn’t exist in the city.
Todd Gloria’s plan is apparently to continue upzoning, and to keep showering developers with incentives. His goal: So many housing units will be built that developers will have to cut prices. That’s a fantasy; why would they do that?
Knowledgeable people understand that the market determines housing production and prices. City governments don’t. Why does Todd Gloria cling to bankrupt ideas about upzoning and incentives?
Two articles which refute the “housing shortage”:
Opinion: As Population Growth Slows, San Diego May Not Need to Build as Many New Homes. By Richard T. Carson. April 29, 2024
“Has San Diego County already built enough new housing to accommodate all the currently projected population growth through the year 2050? … the answer, surprisingly, is ‘yes.’”
Where Is the Housing Shortage? By Kirk McClure & Alex Schwatz. Published online: 18 Apr 2024.
“Although we found little evidence to indicate a shortage of housing at the national or metro level, our analysis shows a pervasive shortage of units affordable to renter households with income below 30% of AMI.”
Other professional studies explain why a city can’t “build its way to affordability.” One such study is based on Vancouver’s experience.
Sick City: Disease, Race, Inequality and Urban Land. By Patrick Condon. January 30, 2021.
“No amount of opening zoning or allowing for development will cause prices to go down. We’ve seen no evidence of that at all.”
Dr. Condon’s latest book is Sick City, which addresses why upzoning doesn’t reduce prices, and is free to download here.